Election Day in 2024 – Harris is a credible candidate and this is how she can win. (Live Updates)
In other words, if Harris wins all three northern battlegrounds, along with every other non-battleground state that was won by Biden in 2020, the electoral votes that he won in Maine and Nebraska, the only states that have a divided democracy (FiveThirtyEight polling averages indicate that Trump and Harris are deadlocked in Pennsylvania, while Harris is leading by a point in both Wisconsin and Michigan), she will reach precisely 270 electoral votes.
Harris may also win those six out of seven swing states, except North Carolina, as the only possibility for the strategical math used by Biden in 2020, making her way up to 303 electoral votes, but this possibility looks less optimistic as the majority of the polls indicate that Trump is currently leading in Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia, although the margins in all those three states are within less than 2.5 points.
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In North Carolina and Georgia, the likelihood of being the first battleground state called on Tuesday, is high. Should Harris outdo the polls in the two states that average Trump incurvey, this could be a good sign for her prospects in other areas as well.
The gentrification of the South, where there are fewer white working-class voters that can be favorably termed as nil college educated, an increasing number of college-educated whites who are turning Democrat, may work in favor of, Harris, in the ‘blue wall’ states. On the other hand, the increasing racial composition in North Carolina and Georgia, as well as the changing, more liberal attitudes among suburban voters, may also benefit Harris, although Republicans have an inherent advantage in both states.
Interesting tidbit
The previously established Iowa and Nevada election forecasts, which have been most trusted in the recent past, posited that Harris may upend the polling average and emerge as a victor in the two states. For the Des Moines Register/Mediacom, J. Ann Selzer released an Iowa Poll on Sunday and indicated that Harris was ahead in the state at 47%-44%. Previously, Trump had a 4-point advantage according to Selzer’s September survey for the paper, and 18 points against Biden in June. Selzer reported that political independents, women, and the elderly were responsible for Harris’ ascent in the state. In a parallel situation, respected Nevada political operative Jon Ralston, who has never missed a prediction on the outcome of presidential elections in the state, also projected on Monday that independent voters, who are the biggest segment of the electorate in Nevada, will carry Harris past Trump by a slim 0.3 margin in that state.
What Knowledge Still Remains Elusive
The timing of the announcement of the results. Following North Carolina and Georgia, the next state where results are anticipated is Wisconsin which is identified as a toss-up state, most likely very late in the day on elections day or very early the following day, and Michigan the day after in-person election day as officials from both states have mentioned. In Pennsylvania, results may take a few days to process, as well as in Nevada and Arizona, which are predicted to be the most inefficient in ballot processing. The authorities in Arizona reveal that results are expected to be ready in 10 to 13 days.
Contextual Information
In a possible Harris presidency, it will be the first time a woman and a South Asian is elected to the White House. This comes after an incensed campaign that saw Harris becoming the face of the campaign to appeal to the population after Biden conquered the Democratic primaries in every other state and withdrew from the race. Her entry into the competition was a unifying moment for her party after the previous tensions throughout the primaries due to Biden’s unwillingness to step aside – despite Trump’s considerable advance in the polls. Democratic Party members, including Harris, hit the ground a few hours after the announcement of Biden’s shocking withdrawal on July 21, less than a month after his important debate with Trump on June 27. Harris tapped Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate two weeks before the Democratic National Convention. She had a short explosion of popularity in polls and was generally considered to have won her first and last duel with Trump, in which they both debated on September 10. Nevertheless, Trump managed to close the distance in the polls, and by the time election day arrived, they were almost on even standing nationally, as well in all the key battle grounds. Born in Oakland, 60-year-old Harris is the daughter of a South Indian mother, an esteemed breast cancer researcher, and a Black father, a respected economist. She graduated from Howard University in undergraduate studies and earned a law degree from the University of California Hastings. In 2004, she won the position of attorney general of San Francisco and in 2011 made history for being the first Black person, first woman, and first Asian American elected as California’s attorney general. She was elected to the Senate in the year 2016 and also declared her candidacy of presidency in the year 2019.
Tangent
Harris’s main focus in many of her speeches and public appearances has been the critique of Donald Trump and the threats that he represents should he be reconsidered for presidency. He has, in her own words, been labelled a “fascist”, engaged in anti Trump campaigns with leading anti Trumpists such as Liz Chaney and constantly emphasized on the fact that he intends to avenge his scientists basing on the recent exposition, the ‘enemy from within’. In the short time that she has been running for president, some of Harris’ policies have had very little in the way of substance and she has had the hard work of trying to carve herself out of the shadow of Biden. All while avoiding the backlash that is directed towards the presidency or its limb. Further, Harris has avoided or backtracked on some of her previous ambitious positions like supporting a federal fracking prohibition she claimed most are not for criminalizing people that cross the border illegally. These policies, which she has since said she no longer supports, will die in her campaign. The lady and her team have also done an evasive dance about whether or not she still stands by some of the views she used to hold on such issues as love and sex work donor funding and reparations for enslavement. Harris has said that as president, she will put in place economic measures to support and expand the middle class by, for example, not imposing taxes on Americans earning below $400,000; price control on edible and drinks accommodations and all tips being gratuity free. Additionally, she’s pledged to increase the child tax credit for low- and middle-income earners while also offering $25,000 in assistance for first-time home buyers to help with their down payment.
Leading Detractor
Trump has referred to Harris as a mouthpiece of the White House and the Democratic Party, labeling her as disingenuous, while dubbing the vice president as “lyin’ Kamala.” Without backing up any of these claims, Trump has also insinuated that Harris has lied about working at a McDonald’s over a summer in college and even called her ethnicity into question. One of the more incendiary attacks that he made against Kamala Harris during the election cycle was that Trump proclaimed Harris “became” Black – this in spite of the fact that the vice president has shared her experiences as a mixed-race individual for as long as she has been in politics. He has also held her responsible for the increase in illegal border crossings since President Biden’s took office and for the high inflation rates last summer (which has dropped over time) and has also disparaged her intelligence, calling her “low IQ,” “lazy,” and “slow” on multiple occasions.
